Forex Piyasasında Kurumsal Risk Yönetimi

Global piyasalarda emtia ve dövizde yaşanan sert hareketler, döviz riski taşıyan ve emtia bağımlılığı yüksek işletmelerin risklerini artıyor. Özellikle ithalat ve ihracat yapan veya ithal hammadde girdisi yüksek şirketler açısından risk oluşturuyor.

Dış ticaret hacmi 400 milyar dolara ulaşan Türkiye’de döviz ve emtia fiyatlarında oluşan dalgalanma, bazı sektörler için daha ciddi sorunlara yol açmaktadır. Tasarruf sahibinden, ihracatçıya; ithalatçıdan, bankacıya birçok kesim etkilenmektedir. Mesela, yurtdışından hammadde ithal eden bir işletmenin dolar yükseldiğinde maliyetleri ve bu bağlamda ödemeleri artmaktadır. Ya da dolar ile borçlanan bir yatırımcının ödeme miktarı artacağından ekstra bir kaynak yaratması söz konusu olacaktır.

Günümüzde makro büyüklükte işletmeler, risk yönetimi konusunda çok hassas olmasına rağmen orta ve küçük ölçekli işletmelerde riskten sakınma veya hedge kültürü tam anlamı ile yerleşmemiştir. İşletmelerin gelir ve giderlerinin planlaması açısından risk yönetimi çok önemlidir. Dünyada risk yönetimi çok ciddiye alınmaktadır. Risk yönetimini kolaylaştırmak amacıyla kamu ve özel finans kurumları tarafından çok çeşitli risk fonları ve enstrümanları geliştirilmiştir. Yatırımcıların, işadamlarının veya risk yöneticilerinin Forex piyasasında bu ürünlere ulaşması çok kolaydır.
Forex’in oluşmasının temelinde de bankaların döviz işlemlerinde daha düşük maliyet ve riskle işlem yapma arzuları vardır. Forex işlemleri öncelikle bankaların kendi aralarında ki ticaretle başlamış ardından fonların ve nihayetinde de bireysel yatırımcıların sektöre yoğun ilgi göstermesi ile uluslararası arenada hızla büyümüştür.

Hedge işleminin yatırımcıya ve kurumlara sağladığı avantajlara değinebilmek için öncelikle “hedge nedir ve nasıl yapılır?” üzerinde durulması gerekmektedir.

Finansal bir varlığın gelecek bir dönemde değer kaybetme riskine karşı yapılan işleme hedge veya riskten korunma denilmektedir. Diğer bir deyişle, aralarında negatif korelasyon olan iki varlığa yatırım yapmak suretiyle olası olumsuz fiyat hareketlerinden doğabilecek zararlara karşı önlem almaktır. Başka bir bakış açısı ile spot piyasada bulunan bir pozisyonda oluşabilecek risklere karşı diğer bir piyasada ters pozisyon alarak korunmaktır.

Pratikte ise riskten yüzde yüz korunmak çok zordur. Bununla beraber riski minimize etmek için çeşitli korunma stratejileri oluşturulabilir. Ne tür bir pozisyon alınacağı ve hangi stratejiler üzerinden işlem yapılacağı ve hangi enstrüman üzerinden yatırım yapılacağı gibi stratejiler geliştirilebilir. Strateji geliştirirken riskten korunmadan öte risk yönetimi üzerinde durmak daha optimal sonuçlar verir.

Hisse senedi, döviz, tahvil, kıymetli madenler veya ticari bir emtianın gelecekte oluşabilecek değer kaybı riskine karşı nasıl bir işlem yapılmalıdır? Sorusuna iki farklı senaryo üzerinden cevap verebiliriz. İlk senaryomuzda işletmenin hedging yapmadığını düşünelim. İthalatçı bir firmanın 3 ay sonra ödemek üzere yurtdışından 100 bin dolar değerinde bir ürün ithal ettiğini farz edelim. Anlaşma tarihinde USD/TRL kuru 1.800 TL olsun. Ödeme tarihinde USD/TRL kurunun 1.890 TL’ye çıktığını kabul edelim. İthalatçı firma Forex piyasasında hedging işlemi yapmadığından 100 bin dolarlık borç için 189 bin TL ödemek zorunda kalacaktır. Doların değerinde ki yükselmeden dolayı maliyet 9 bin TL artacaktır.

İşletmenin Forex piyasasında hedging işlemi yaptığı senaryo da ki duruma bakalım. Anlaşma tarihinde USD/TRY kuru 1.800 TL’den 1 lotluk alım sözleşmesi pozisyonu açalım. Ödeme zamanına kadar kurun 1.890 TL’ye yükseldiğini farz edelim. Yatırımcı Forex piyasasında almış olduğu alış pozisyonunu 1.890 TL’den kapatır ve 9 bin TL’lik ek bir maliyete katlanmamış olur. Ayrıca Forex piyasasının 1:100 kaldıraç özelliğini kullanarak 1.000 dolar ile 100 bin dolarlık pozisyon açabilir. Böylece 1.000 dolar teminat ile 100 bin dolarlık bir pozisyon hedge edebilir.

Aynı örneği Altın emtiası için vermek gerekirse, bir kuyumcunun 145 bin dolarlık altını borç verdiği farz edelim. Altının borç verildiğinde altının onsu 1.450 dolar olsun. Alacağın tahsilinde ise onsunun 1.390 dolara gerilediğini düşünelim. Bu durumda 6 bin dolar zarar etmiş olacaktır.

Kuyumcunun Forex piyasasında riskten korunmak için altın satış işlemi yaptığını farz edelim. 1 ons altının 1,450 dolardan işlem gördüğünü ve bu fiyat üzerinden aynı büyüklükte altın satış (short) işlemi yaptığını farz edelim. Kuyumcu 3 ay sonra alacağını tahsil ettiğinde Forex piyasasında açmış olduğu işlemi 1,390 dolardan kapatarak yerine koyar. Böylece altında oluşan değer kaybı riskinden korunur. Ayrıca, Forex piyasasında 1:100 kaldıraç imkanından da faydalanarak daha düşük teminatla riskten korunmuş olacaktır.

Bu örnekleri çeşitlendirmek mümkün. Günümüzde risk yönetiminin yapılması artık işletmeler açısından yaşamsal bir işlev özelliğini taşımaktadır. Hedging konusunda yatırımcının, iş adamlarının, işletmelerin veya riskten korunmak isteyen tüm bireylerin bu konuda gerekliyi bilgiyi alması hatta bu konuda bir strateji geliştirmesi gerekmektedir. Bilinçli yatırımcı misyonu çerçevesinde GCM Forex, risk yönetimi yani hedging işlemlerinde uzman kadrosundan merak ettiğiniz her konuda detaylı bilgi alabilirsiniz.

Forex piyasasında bilinçli yatırımcı olmanın farkını GCM Forex’te yaşamak istiyorsanız daha fazla bilgi için www.gcmforex.com adresini ziyaret edebilirsiniz.

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